Matthieu Bloch
Tuesday September 27, 2022
The random variable \(\vece_i\eqdef \vecy_i-\hat{\vecy}_i\) is called the innovation
Consider the linear stochastic differential equations \(\vecy_{i+1}-a \vecy_i=\vecu_i\) for \(i\geq 0\), \(a\in\bbR\)
\(\forall i\geq j\) we have \(\dotp{\vecu_i}{\vecy_j}=0\)
Let \(\Pi_i\eqdef \norm{\vecy_i}^2\); then \(\Pi_{i+1}=a^2\Pi_i+\matQ_i\)
In general the process is not stationary
If \(\matQ_i=\matQ\), \(\Pi_0 = \frac{\matQ}{1-a^2}\) with \(\abs{a}<1\), the process is stationary
Innovations can be computed regardless of stationarity
State space models allow us quite a bit of generality
Does the slimplicity extend beyond that simple example?
The autoregressive model can be represented as a simple order 1 recursion of the form \[ \vecx_{i+1} = \matF_i\vecx_i + \matG_i\vecu_i\qquad y_i =\matH_i\vecx_i \]
The autoregressive moving-average model can also be represented as a simple order 1 recursion